Archive for May 8th, 2009

The Treasury's Single-Note Tune

Andy Spero | May 8, 2009 | 1 Comment(s) |


In the previous post we noted a WSJ editorial that stated, ”The best that can be said about the stress tests is that they’re over.”

We wouldn’t go that far, but we’ve been highly critical of the regulators for a number of reasons. (See our various posts about the stress tests, and you can search for our posts on regulators and capital requirements if you want.) Here’s a new criticism that we haven’t mentioned before.

Within firms, it’s almost never the case that stress tests and scenario analyses are performed… Read the rest

Today's WSJ Reporting Errors per the Bank Stress Tests

Andy Spero | May 8, 2009 | 0 Comment(s) |

Is that Really the Worst-Case?

Today’s front-page article in the The Wall Street JournalFed Sees Up to $599 Billion in Bank Losses, is subtitled “Worst-Case Capital Shortfall of $75 Billion at 10 Banks Is Less Than Many Feared; Some Shares Rise on Hopes Crisis Is Easing.”

While it is the worst of the two cases analyzed by the regulators, it is not the worst, reasonable case that could be imagined. Perhaps that’s why the shortfall was “Less Than Many Feared.”

  • It’s reasonably possible for the downturn to be deeper

Read the rest