Archive for December 18th, 2008

Our Prediction: Plummeting Donations to Universities

Andy Spero | December 18, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

We have two other posts today, Oil in the 30s: Merry Christmas, in which we opportunistically crow about our prowess at predicting oil prices, and The Harvard-Yale-CALPERS Cycling Club, in which we lament the lack of imagination among fund managers and the enormous harm caused by inexperience or ineptitude (got to throw-in the personal and institutional greed, too).  We do that via an analogy.

Now, this post extends both of those because, here, we make a… Read the rest

The Harvard-Yale-CALPERS Cycling Club

Andy Spero | December 18, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

My fickle friend, the summer wind.

A few weeks ago, Harvard announced that its endowment fund lost about $8,000,000,000 (since July 1).

This week, Yale announced that its endowment was down about 25% for the year.  That’s about $5,900,000,000.  (Their fiscal year started July 1.)

Likewise, according to yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, CALPERS, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, has lost about one-quarter of its assets since July 1.  That’s almost $60,000,000,000. Poof!  To put it into perspective; that is A LOT of money.

On their housing investment, CALPERS… Read the rest

Oil in the 30s: Merry Christmas

Andy Spero | December 18, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

Back on May Day, when oil was about $120 per barrel, we speculated in Commodity Bubbles? Yeah, Probably, that the price could be $40 per barrel by year end.  (We weren’t very specific about which kind of oil and when it was to be delivered, but such is life.)

We don’t keep track of all of our predictions–only the ones where we turned out to be right.  For those, we continue our streak of being 100% correct, and we’ll continue to occasionally highlight them in posts.

On October 31, in… Read the rest

Cassandra, the SEC and Mr. Madoff

Andy Spero | December 18, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

We very much like the ancient Greek story of Cassandra, and one could well imagine that for almost ten years, Harry Markopolos felt like a modern-day Cassandra.

We don’t know enough about Mr. Markopolos to know whether he wrote letters to the SEC about hundreds of other fund managers claiming that they also ran Ponzi schemes or were part of the conspiracy to assassinate President Kennedy, were adducted by UFOs, or provided FDR with advanced knowledge of the bombing of Pearl Harbor or some combination of the four.  If so, then it is quite… Read the rest