Archive for October 9th, 2008

10-09-08: The Expiration of the Short-Selling Ban

Andy Spero | October 9, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

We’re not sure whether to start this post on a sarcastic tone or not.  The sarcastic start is “it’s too bad the short-selling ban expired, could the dear reader imagine how far stocks would have fallen without it?”  But, the market did tank again today.

Instead, we’ll note that when such a ban is arbitrarily imposed during a seemingly negative event, most participants infer/conclude that the event is worse or much worse than they would have otherwise thought or were led to believe–possibly worse than anyone ever imagined.  (By arbitrarily, we mean spur-of-the-moment and not due to a… Read the rest

When the U.S. Sneezes…

Andy Spero | October 9, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

the rest of the world complains.

On Tuesday, we posted The Importance of the Rule of Law, which describes how Russia’s problems are unique from the West’s and, as we see it, are the result of self-destructive policies and desires.

In that entry, without providing additional links to articles, we insinuated that The Wall Street Journal‘s reporters seemed to be agreeing with Russian leaders that, of course, Russia was an international victim of the credit crisis in the USA. … Read the rest

implied RISK NEUTRAL probability of default, redux

Andy Spero | October 9, 2008 | 0 Comment(s) |

Update: we have newer posts on the topic, too, including Risk Neutral Valuation: There Are at Least Two Expected Values, that describes the difference between real and risk neutral distributions.  We also have: Price Implied Default Rates that provides an example more like a risky bond, and a multi-period example: Multi-period Bond Price Implied Default Rates and CDS.

The Wall Street Journal has an article about Iceland’s financial problems in today’s paper: Aftershocks Felt From Iceland.  It turns out that the country has more problems than being a… Read the rest